Dynamische Wähler, dynamische Wahlkämpfe

Latenzzeiten in einer  Rolling-Cross-Section-Studie

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Beste Grüße

The comparative politics literature suggests that successful new parties are a rare
phenomenon in liberal democratic politics. This was also predicted to be true of new
democracies for four main reasons. First, existing successful parties would reduce access to
the political system by tightening the rules of entry after an early highly permissive period
when the political system was very open. Secondly, the widespread introduction of state
funding of parties creates a huge obstacle to resource-poor new parties. Thirdly, parties would
become increasingly coherent, both organisationally and ideologically; and the incentive to
split would decline. Fourthly, voters would gradually develop party loyalties leading to a
decline in electoral volatility and reducing the incentives for party entrepreneurs to chance
their arm in the electoral arena.
These are plausible arguments. However, there is no sign of the decline of new parties in the
region, although there are country variations: For a time Latvia led the field for the number of
new parties, but this changed at the last election. Recently Lithuania has seen a spurt in
successful parties. In 2004 the new Labour Party came first. In 2008 the National Revival
Party was composed entirely of national television celebrities and pop music stars with little
political experience, yet it won over 15% of the list vote and entered government. Even the
apparently solid two-bloc Hungarian system looked rather different after the 2010 election.
The election saw two new entrants to the parliamentary arena, the extreme right Jobbik and
the Green-Liberal Politics Can Be Different, along with the disappearance of two parties that
had been present since 1990. The Czech Christian Democratic offshoot TOP is expected to
enter the Czech parliament in June 2010.
This paper reviews the nature of new parties of Central and Eastern Europe. In general they
did not appeal to new sections of the electorate, they did not exploit ideological gaps on the
political spectrum, nor did they raise new issues hitherto ignored by the existing parties. The
most plausible explanations for their success lie in the opportunities for party entrepreneurs to
respond to elite failure. Elites did not succeed in maintaining voter loyalty. Distrust of parties
left the way open for voters to respond to offers from new parties.

für Mittwoch, den 5. Mai (nächste Woche) hatten wir nur eine Prüfungssimulation im Programm, sonst nichts. Der Kandidat hat mich nun darum gebeten, seine Simulation zu verschieben, so daß wir am kommenden Mittwoch kein Kolloqium haben. Bitte geben Sie dies an andere Teilnehmer weiter, da nicht alle von Ihnen bei Jogustine registriert sind bzw. die Jogustine-Nachrichten regelmäßig lesen.

Für diejenigen, die letzte Woche nicht da waren, noch zwei weitere Hinweise auf Termine:

• Am 2. Juni bin ich auf einer Dienstreise. Hier hatten wir aber auch noch nichts geplant
• Am 9. Juni findet – vermutlich ab 18 Uhr – eine Veranstaltung für Bachelor-Studierende statt, an der ich teilnehme. Für diesen Termin hatten wir zwei Präsentationen zur EU geplant, die ich gerne auf den 26. Mai verschieben möchte. Zu diesem Termin könnten wir auch die für nächste Woche vorgesehene Prüfungssimulation machen. Die Referenten mögen mich bitte kontaktieren, damit wir das festmachen können
• Und schließlich: am 12. und am 19. Mai haben wir bisher kein Programm; ich würde aber beide Termine gerne nutzen, deshalb Meldung an mich, wer wann was vorstellen möchte. Ich ändere dann das Programm im Online-Kalender entsprechend.